Can Anyone Break Away on Sunday? Previewing the '500'
May 23, 2015 | By Phillip B. Wilson, IMS.com Correspondent
Scott Dixon doesn’t envision one car running away from 32 others in Sunday’s 99th Indianapolis 500, but Ryan Hunter-Reay insists it’s possible.
It’s an intriguing debate, considering Dixon is the pole sitter in his No. 9 Target Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet and Hunter-Reay is the defending champion in his No. 28 DHL Andretti Autosport Honda, which will start 16th.
When Dixon won the Indy 500 in 2008, he said his car was strong enough to break away from the pack. But the cars are so identical in performance and handling these days, he’s convinced a group of them together forms a drafting tow that is unbreakable.
“You’ll never get away at this race,” Dixon said Thursday, “not this day and age.”
Hunter-Reay’s eyebrows raised when apprised of this opinion. He said he was about to build a late lead by speeding through lapped traffic in last year’s race, but a red flag on lap 191 bunched the leaders to create an all-out dash to the finish.
“The air coming off the back of the car is cleaner this year,” Hunter-Reay said. “It is taking these cars a lot longer to pick up the draft. Before, if you had another car in same short chute as you, you would be under his gearbox in one lap. If you had a car in the same straightaway as you, you’d be able to pull in the draft. Now, for me at least in my situation in what I’ve seen on track, it takes three times or four times as long to pull that same gap.
“I think if we get into traffic situations, absolutely someone can pull a lead.”
If drivers agree on anything, it’s that the elite level of competitors in this field translates to more cars being capable of winning.
“Absolutely,” Hunter-Reay said. “But I always feel like there are 10 different guys that can win it. I certainly think the Ganassi and Penske cars have the best shot at the moment, but there are some other teams that have really shown speed this month that are knocking on the door. Hopefully we’re one of them.”
Team Penske’s Juan Pablo Montoya dominated this race in his 2000 debut, when he won in a Ganassi entry. The Verizon IndyCar Series points leader, whose No. 2 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet will start 15th, says racing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway has changed dramatically in 15 years.
“Oh yeah, it’s anybody’s,” Montoya said. “I really feel that there’s probably eight to 10 cars that can win the race. It’s harder because you can’t drive away from anybody.”
When sizing up potential front-runners, many of the usual suspects are driving cars for the biggest teams. Defending series champion Will Power of Team Penske turned the fastest lap of 229.020 mph in Friday’s final Carb Day practice. Dixon was second at 228.585 mph. Ganassi Racing’s Tony Kanaan, the 2013 Indy 500 winner, came in third at 228.490 mph. Team Penske’s Simon Pagenaud, who will start on the outside of the front row, was fourth at 228.458 mph.
“If you look at the average age of the top five in the championship, it’s like 39 years old, so everybody has a lot of experience,” Kanaan said. “When you have a young talent who comes along and puts himself in the mix, you can say, ‘He’s going to make a mistake. He hasn’t been through all the scenarios. He’s fast, but he might make a mistake here or there.’
“But then you put almost like nine guys in a certain age, we’ve been around for such a long time, it’s going to be hard for eight of them to make a silly mistake because they don’t do that.”
It’s the first time Kanaan will have both of his sons, Leonardo and Deco, at the race. When he won in 2013, Kanaan gave the replica miniature Borg-Warner Trophy, known as the “Baby Borg,” to Leonardo.
“Leo asked me last night, ‘So you going to win this one again so Deco can have a mini Baby Borg as well?’” Kanaan said. “I said, ‘Good point.’”
Kanaan is making his 300th career open-wheel start. His No. 10 NTT Data Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet qualified fourth. Starting next to him is three-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves, who is making his 301st start. He’s driving the No. 3 Shell V-Power Nitro+ Team Penske Chevrolet.
Nobody has more experience than these Brazilian buddies. Castroneves, who is driven to become just the fourth four-time Indy 500 winner, dueled with Hunter-Reay at the end of last year’s race. Hunter-Reay’s 0.06-second victory was the second-closest margin in race history.
“This is the Super Bowl, the Olympics, the World Cup,” Castroneves said. “If you’ve got to win one race, this is the one.”
Hall of Fame team owner Roger Penske has won a record 15 Indy 500s, the last with Castroneves in 2009.
“I feel like we have as big a chance this year than any other to win another Indy 500,” Castroneves said.
In 2013, the race had a record 68 lead changes and 14 leaders. Last year, there were 34 lead changes with 11 leaders.
“Last year was extremely tight,” Hunter-Reay said. “We had seven lead changes in the last seven laps. That’s as close as you can get around here.”
Hunter-Reay is not the only Andretti Autosport driver who could be in the hunt at the end. Justin Wilson’s No. 25 Honda, the fastest of team owner Michael Andretti’s five qualifiers, will start sixth. Michael’s son, Marco, will start eighth in the No. 27 Snapple Honda. He’s finished in the top five five times, including second in his 2006 debut and third last year. Carlos Munoz, the 2013 runner-up, starts 11th in the No. 26 AndrettiTV Cinsay Honda.
Andretti Autosport cars took three of the top four spots as well as sixth place last year.
Two-time pole sitter Ed Carpenter returns in a joint venture with former driver Sarah Fisher. Their three-car CFH Racing team has Josef Newgarden starting ninth in the No. 21 Century 21 Chevrolet, 2011 runner-up JR Hildebrand 10th in the No. 6 Preferred Freezer Chevrolet and Carpenter 12th in the No. 20 Fuzzy’s Vodka Chevrolet.
The list of possible contenders also includes former four-time Champ Car World Series champion Sebastien Bourdais, whose No. 11 Hydroxycut-HAUS Vaporizer KVSH Chevrolet qualified seventh.
“For the fans, it’s going to be exciting,” Dixon said. “I’d like to see it a different way. On lap 199, I’d like to have a 10-second gap, but I’m sure that’s not going to happen.”